Abstract
Objectives
To project the number and proportion of women in the urology workforce using recent
demographic trends and develop an app to explore updated projections using future
data.
Methods
Demographic data were obtained from AUA Censuses and ACGME Data Resource Books. The
proportion of female graduating urology residents was characterized with a logistic
growth model. ‘Stock and Flow’ models were used to project future population numbers
and proportions of female practicing urologists, accounting for trainee demographics,
retirement trends, and growth in the field.
Results
Assuming growth in urology graduate numbers and continued logistic growth in the proportion
of women, 10,957 practicing urologists (38%) will be female by 2062. If the rate of
women entering urology residency stagnates, 7,038 urologists (24%) will be female.
If the retirement rates for women in urology change to mirror those of men and the
proportion of female residents continues to experience logistic growth, 11,178 urologists
(38%) will be female. An interactive app was designed to allow for a range of assumptions
and future data: https://stephenrho.shinyapps.io/uro-workforce/.
Conclusions
Workforce projections should incorporate recent growth in numbers of female residents.
If current growth continues, 38% of urologists will be female by 2062. The app allows
for exploration of different scenarios and can be updated with new data. The projections
demonstrate the need for targeted efforts to recruit women into urology, address disparities
within the field, and work towards retaining female urologists. We must continue working
towards an equitable future workforce that can address the impending shortage of urologists.
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
April 18,
2023
Received in revised form:
April 9,
2023
Received:
February 20,
2023
Publication stage
In Press Journal Pre-ProofIdentification
Copyright
© 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
