Abstract
Our aim was to review and externally validate all the available predictive tools (PTs)
predicting extraprostatic extension (EPE) using the area under the curve, calibration
plots, and scaled Brier score.
A literature search was performed showing 19 models predicting EPE. External validation
was carried out on 6360 prostate cancer patients submitted to RP. Most of the PTs
showed poor discrimination and unsatisfactory calibration.
The majority of the available PTs are not reliable for the prediction of EPE in populations
other than the development one; thus, they may not be completely appropriate for patients’
counselling or for surgical strategy preplanning.
To read this article in full you will need to make a payment
Purchase one-time access:
Academic & Personal: 24 hour online accessCorporate R&D Professionals: 24 hour online accessOne-time access price info
- For academic or personal research use, select 'Academic and Personal'
- For corporate R&D use, select 'Corporate R&D Professionals'
Subscribe:
Subscribe to UrologyAlready a print subscriber? Claim online access
Already an online subscriber? Sign in
Register: Create an account
Institutional Access: Sign in to ScienceDirect
References
- Clinically localized prostate cancer: AUA/ASTRO/SUO Guideline. Part II: recommended approaches and details of specific care options.J Urol. 2018; 199: 990-997
- EAU-ESTRO-SIOG guidelines on prostate cancer. Part 1: screening, diagnosis, and local treatment with curative intent.Eur Urol. 2017; 71: 618-629
- Prediction of erectile function following treatment for prostate cancer.JAMA. 2011; 306: 1205-1214
- Preoperative nomograms for predicting extracapsular extension in Korean men with localized prostate cancer: a multi-institutional clinicopathologic study.J Korean Med Sci. 2010; 25: 1443-1448
- Factors predicting recovery of erections after radical prostatectomy.J Urol. 2000; 164: 1929-1934
- Prostate MRI prior to radical prostatectomy: effects on nerve sparing and pathological margin status.Res Rep Urol. 2017; 9: 55-63
- A novel tool for predicting extracapsular extension during graded partial nerve sparing in radical prostatectomy.BJU Int. 2018; 121: 373-382
- Development and external validation of a biopsy-derived nomogram to predict risk of ipsilateral extraprostatic extension.BJU Int. 2017; 120: 76-82
- The use of prostate specific antigen, clinical stage and Gleason score to predict pathological stage in men with localized prostate cancer.J Urol. 1993; 150: 110-114
- Prediction of capsular perforation and seminal vesicle invasion in prostate cancer.J Urol. 1996; 155: 1361-1367
- Combination of prostate-specific antigen, clinical stage, and Gleason score to predict pathological stage of localized prostate cancer. A multi-institutional update.JAMA. 1997; 277: 1445-1451
- Improved predictability of extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle involvement based on clinical and biopsy findings in prostate cancer in Japanese men.Urology. 1998; 52: 433-440
- A study of pretreatment nomograms to predict pathological stage and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy for clinically resectable prostate cancer in Japanese men.Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2001; 31: 74-81
- Contemporary update of prostate cancer staging nomograms (Partin Tables) for the new millennium.Urology. 2001; 58: 843-848
- Predicting the presence and side of extracapsular extension: a nomogram for staging prostate cancer.J Urol. 2004; 171 (discussion 1849): 1844-1849
- Nomograms for the prediction of pathologic stage of clinically localized prostate cancer in Korean men.J Korean Med Sci. 2005; 20: 262-266
- Prediction of extraprostatic extension in the neurovascular bundle based on prostate needle biopsy pathology, serum prostate specific antigen and digital rectal examination.J Urol. 2005; 173: 450-453
- Validation of a nomogram for prediction of side specific extracapsular extension at radical prostatectomy.J Urol. 2006; 175 (discussion 944): 939-944
- Updated nomogram to predict pathologic stage of prostate cancer given prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score (Partin tables) based on cases from 2000 to 2005.Urology. 2007; 69: 1095-1101
- Validation of Partin tables and development of a preoperative nomogram for Japanese patients with clinically localized prostate cancer using 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology consensus on Gleason grading: data from the Clinicopathological Research Group for Localized Prostate Cancer.J Urol. 2008; 180 (discussion 909-910): 904-909
- Prediction of patient-specific risk and percentile cohort risk of pathological stage outcome using continuous prostate-specific antigen measurement, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score.BJU Int. 2011; 107: 1562-1569
- Development and internal validation of a nomogram predicting extracapsular extension in radical prostatectomy specimens.Int J Urol. 2010; 17: 267-272
- Novel predictive tools for Irish radical prostatectomy pathological outcomes: development and validation.Ir J Med Sci. 2010; 179: 187-195
- Nomograms to predict the pathological stage of clinically localized prostate cancer in Korean men: comparison with western predictive tools using decision curve analysis.Int J Urol. 2012; 19: 846-852
- An updated prostate cancer staging nomogram (Partin tables) based on cases from 2006 to 2011.BJU Int. 2013; 111: 22-29
- Prediction of pathological stage based on clinical stage, serum prostate-specific antigen, and biopsy Gleason score: Partin Tables in the contemporary era.BJU Int. 2017; 119: 676-683
- A magnetic resonance imaging-based prediction model for prostate biopsy risk stratification.JAMA Oncol. 2018; 4: 678-685
- Validation, updating and impact of clinical prediction rules: a review.J Clin Epidemiol. 2008; 61: 1085-1094
- External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination.J Clin Epidemiol. 2015; 68: 25-34
- Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement.Eur Urol. 2015; 67: 1142-1151
- Robotic radical prostatectomy in the community setting—the learning curve and beyond: initial 200 cases.J Urol. 2005; 174: 269-272
- American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual.6th ed. Springer, New York2002
- Proposal of a method to assess and report the extent of residual neurovascular tissue present in radical prostatectomy specimens.BJU Int. 2013; 112: E301-E306
- The robotic surgery era and the role of laparoscopy training.Ther Adv Urol. 2009; 1: 161-165
- Applied Logistic Regression.Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA2013
- Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for some traditional and novel measures.Epidemiology. 2010; 21: 128-138
- A spline-based tool to assess and visualize the calibration of multiclass risk predictions.J Biomed Inform. 2015; 54: 283-293
- Balance diagnostics for comparing the distribution of baseline covariates between treatment groups in propensity-score matched samples.Stat Med. 2009; 28: 3083-3107
- Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for local staging of prostate cancer: a diagnostic meta-analysis.Eur Urol. 2016; 70: 233-245
- Adding multiparametric MRI to the MSKCC and Partin nomograms for primary prostate cancer: improving local tumor staging?.Urol Oncol. 2019; 37: 181.e1-181.e6
- Added value of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging to clinical nomograms for predicting adverse pathology in prostate cancer.J Urol. 2018; 200: 1041-1047
- Neurovascular structure-adjacent frozen-section examination (NeuroSAFE) increases nerve-sparing frequency and reduces positive surgical margins in open and robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy: experience after 11,069 consecutive patients.Eur Urol. 2012; 62: 333-340
- Intraoperative peripheral frozen sections do not significantly affect prognosis after nerve-sparing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.BJU Int. 2011; 107: 755-759
- [Head to head comparison of two currently used nomograms predicting the risk of side specific extra capsular extension to indicate nerve sparing during radical prostatectomy for treatment of prostate cancer].Progres en urologie: journal de l'Association francaise d'urologie et de la Societe francaise d'urologie. 2014; 24: 581-587
- Accurate prediction tools in prostate cancer require consistent assessment of included variables.Scand J Urol. 2016; 50: 260-266
- Do prostate cancer nomograms give accurate information when applied to European patients?.Scand J Urol. 2015; 49: 16-24
- External validation of the updated partin tables in a cohort of French and Italian men.Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2009; 73: 347-352
- Head to head comparison of three generations of Partin tables to predict final pathological stage in clinically localised prostate cancer.Eur J Cancer. 2010; 46: 2235-2241
- Comparison of accuracy between the Partin tables of 1997 and 2001 to predict final pathological stage in clinically localized prostate cancer.J Urol. 2004; 171: 177-181
- External validation of the updated Partin tables in a cohort of North American men.J Urol. 2008; 180 (discussion 902-893): 898-902
- Flexible recalibration of binary clinical prediction models.Stat Med. 2013; 32: 282-289
- Development and internal validation of a side-specific, multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging-based nomogram for the prediction of extracapsular extension of prostate cancer.BJU Int. 2018; 122: 1025-1033
- One-stop shop whole-body (68)Ga-PSMA-11 PET/MRI compared to clinical nomograms for preoperative T- and N-Staging of high-risk prostate cancer.J Nucl Med. 2018; 59: 1850-1856
- (68)Ga-PSMA PET/CT imaging predicting intraprostatic tumor extent, extracapsular extension and seminal vesicle invasion prior to radical prostatectomy in patients with prostate cancer.Nucl Med Mol Imaging. 2017; 51: 314-322
- Clinical usefulness of total length of Gleason pattern 4 on biopsy in men with grade group 2 prostate cancer.J Urol. 2019; 201: 77-82
Article info
Publication history
Published online: March 27, 2019
Accepted:
March 21,
2019
Received:
January 23,
2019
Footnotes
TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Despite the use of predictive models is widespread and recommended by most of the international guidelines, surgeons have to be aware about their moderate to poor predictive performance for a pT3a disease and the consequent risk of applying those decision–making tools in a population other than the development one.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST: Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest regarding the publication of this manuscript.
Identification
Copyright
© 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
